Red Sox must rearm: For battles on, off field, Clemens signing critical By Peter Gammons, 12/01/96 This may be the week that Roger Clemens decides to stay or go. The Red Sox believe John Harrington will close the deal, and even most of the general managers who have sought Clemens think so, too, but these are days when the worst is usually expected on Yawkey Way. Which is why Clemens is so much more important than anyone else to the Red Sox. Be it four years with the best insurance policy a luxury box can buy, three years with options, whatever - at this point in franchise history, the weights, with and without him, give Harrington little choice. It does no good for Harrington and Dan Duquette to lament that this may well be the most mean-spirited period in the last few generations of the Boston media, where history is updated every hour on the half-hour. They need Clemens to finish his career in a Boston uniform, give the public a reminder of the club's tradition and quiet the shrieks of some in the media who believe this organization is running parallel to the Phillies. The market price may seem steep for a 34-year-old pitcher who is 40-39 over the last four years, but everyone knows Clemens could have been 18-10 last season and, anyway, the way to rationalize the deal is to look at it as an investment in the new ballpark. The Red Sox cannot compete on equal terms with the Yankees, Orioles and Blue Jays in the current Fenway Park, Harrington wants the legacy of a new park for the Yawkey family, and if Clemens were to leave, it could set back the progress on that park by another winter. So count Clemens as part of the development and construction costs, then remove that silly drawing of him (thanks anyway, Miss Roche's second-graders) from the center-field fence. The Red Sox need him not only because he is, as Duquette says, ``the best pitcher in the history of the franchise,'' but also because he is the lead horse for a pitching staff they hope will be far better than last year's. Jimy Williams and Joe Kerrigan may get more out of Aaron Sele and Tom Gordon, Butch Henry may come back and Robinson Checo, Jeff Suppan, Carl Pavano and Brian Rose may all become important parts of the staff by August. They might be able to sign Jaime Navarro if Clemens leaves - but Jaime Navarro rides the bandwagon, he doesn't pull it. And they owe Williams more of a chance than he was afforded by the media at his unveiling. Look, Duquette tried Hollywood, and that was as transparent as RuPaul, because managing is more complex than an anecdote, a quote or a sound bite. The general manager believes there was no better alternative to Williams, particularly Williams and the staff he brought with him (although Grady Little is now the front-runner for the Tampa Bay job). But to throw Williams into this situation without Clemens and without somehow dealing with all that currently eats at Mo Vaughn would be grossly unfair to the poor man. Then they should sign Tim Naehring and trade John Valentin for a center fielder (the Royals are reluctant to do a Valentin-Johnny Damon swap) or more pitching. Naehring is what Williams is all about - a tough, responsible professional who isn't going to sound like the whine of tires from Tucson to Tucumcari. The Indians want him to play second, the Giants to play third, but he wants to play here, and his agent, Greg Clifton, may find a way to make it possible. More than anyone on this team, players listen to Naehring, which means something to a new manager and staff. If the Indians signed Naehring, Boston would get the 30th pick and something in the 36-38 range in the June draft, but if Valentin can get them a front-line starter or center fielder, that is worth more. Through all the Clemens business, the Brothers Hendricks have respectfully lain back, without threats, without headline negotiations. That is one more reason for Harrington to get Clemens done, but after four years of dealing with labor problems, Harrington doesn't need to hear any more reasoning; he needs a competitive team, a new ballpark and a few quiet days off Cuttyhunk. Store is about to open Once the Players Association ratifies the labor agreement at its meetings this week in Puerto Rico and the service-time free agents become eligible to sign, the spending season can go full tilt. Except for the uncertainty of John Wetteland, it should go like this: Clemens and Alex Fernandez are first, and once they sign, Navarro, David Wells and Jimmy Key fall in behind. The word this weekend is that the Indians will put a hard rush on Fernandez as well as Clemens, and if they fail on both counts, they will sign Steve Avery to a one-year deal and Mark Portugal (who has two-year, $5 million offers from the Cubs and Phillies) to a two-year contract. Understand, the Indians play on everyone, and while they made a three-year, $8 million offer to Naehring, they were simultaneously trying to sign Ryne Sandberg and have been going after Jay Bell, Jeff King and Eric Young. Cleveland also is talking to Kevin Mitchell about platooning with Brian Giles. Yes, Kevin, not George ... If the Marlins do not sign Fernandez, their next priority is Navarro ... The Wetteland scenario will drag on. He visited the Cubs Monday and will visit Texas this week, but as of Friday, the only offer he had was from - sit down - the Expos, at $16 million for four years. Claude Brochu knows he's going to lose Moises Alou and Mel Rojas but feels Montreal can be competitive with a closer ... Bobby Cox did not want Fred McGriff being traded within the division and killed any number of deals with the Marlins for the slugging first baseman. John Schuerholz has a deal set for Bret Boone, as he's afraid Mark Lemke is going to sign with the Yankees. Problem is, Reds GM Jim Bowden has to find a deal for Hal Morris and his $3.1 million, with the Mets interested. How interested, no one knows ... Is Morris what the Mets need? Owner Fred Wilpon clearly would like to make a splash with someone, but that isn't Joe McIlvaine's style. Still, there is a growing feeling that if the Mets slide through another mediocre year with 15,000 in the Shea Stadium Refuse Area, club attorney David Howard may slide McIlvaine down the totem pole ... The Marlins want to sign a pitcher, then Alou (who also could go to Cincinnati) and Jim Eisenreich ... The Giants took J.T. Snow off California's hands for Allen Watson and $900,000 but still are looking for a third baseman. Meanwhile, Anaheim says it can get a young first baseman for a middle man (Mike James to the Cubs for Brandt Brown?) despite attempts by the Yankees to move Cecil Fielder to Disneyland ... The Cardinals are still trying to re-sign catcher Tom Pagnozzi but if not, they have Ron Karkovice (in a deal with the White Sox) and Kirt Manwaring (free agent) as backups. Pagnozzi has drawn interest from the Rockies (if they can move the salary of either Walter Weiss or Young), White Sox, Orioles and several others ... Agent Eric Goldschmidt's asking price is $18 million for three years on Greg Vaughn, $6 million a year for two years on Eric Davis and $2 million a year for Shane Mack. The Phillies have shown considerable interest in Davis, who had knee surgery at the end of the season, which many teams don't realize ... The Red Sox are exploring reports in Japan to determine whether Mack can still play center ... As for Oakland's interest in Jose Canseco, it wants Boston to pick up $2 million-$3 million of his $4.5 million, which makes no sense, since the reason to dump him is to use the money to buy pitching. Anyway, Duquette is convinced Canseco can have a productive season. Here comes Toronto While the Orioles and Red Sox keep an eye on the Yankees, and the Yankees look upwards to George, beware of the Blue Jays. Give them one more pitcher (they have the money to buy one) and they could be showing up in the rear-view mirror of New York, ahead of Baltimore and Boston. This was a team that finished last in 1995. ``The way we ended this season was a 180-degree turnaround from '95,'' said GM Gord Ash. ``We got experience for some good young players [SS Alex Gonzalez, RF Shawn Green, DH-1B Carlos Delgado], our pitching developed and we think we're in the right direction.'' Unless the White Sox keep Fernandez on the heels of signing Albert Belle, no team will have improved itself this offseason more than the Blue Jays, because of their deal with Pittsburgh. They gave up five young players (RHPs Jose Pett and Jose Silva, SS-2B Brandon Cromer, SS Abraham Nunez and C-DH Craig Wilson), plus a player to be named later, to get one of the game's premier second basemen, Carlos Garcia, as well as steady Orlando Merced (averaging .293 and 17 HRs the last two years) and lefty reliever Dan Plesac. Garcia gives Gonzalez a dependable double play partner, Merced is an RBI bat and Plesac is a second lefthander in the bullpen, with Paul Spoljaric. ``I can't tell you how many games that were lost in the last innings,'' said Ash, whose bullpen was only 35 for 53 in save opportunities. ``But now with the two lefthanders, we re-signed Mike Timlin and have Tim Crabtree. We could have a very good bullpen.'' Pat Hentgen, Juan Guzman and Erik Hanson compiled 55 of their division-leading 74 quality starts. They have a number of outstanding young pitchers, led by Windham, N.H., hard thrower and Marty Janzen. What Ash now wants is one more veteran. Last year, they kept being turned down, but already he has made offers to Wells and Clemens and is exploring Key, Avery and others. If they get one of those, and get can someone - anyone! - to take John Olerud's contract, this will be a very interesting team. ``If we start winning again, the magic will unquestionably return,'' said the steady Ash. ``I don't think 4 million [in season attendance] is doable, but the novelty has worn off, and we haven't played well the last couple of years. That said, 31,000 a game isn't bad.'' They're invited to Boston General managers got the word Wednesday night that they are invited to the winter meetings next weekend in Boston, which would reenergize the event. ``I'm coming, and I think you'll see quite a few other general managers come in,'' said Ash. ``I think it's worth it to come.'' The traditional winter meetings were killed after 1992, as Jerry Reinsdorf led the charge to get rid of the week of free publicity because, he said, agents were getting too much out of the owners. Well, Arn Tellum asked for $50 million and got $55 million from Reinsdorf. The Red Sox will have Williams, his coaches and at least a half-dozen players, from Darren Bragg to Adam Hyzdu, available at WinterFest at the Hynes ... The Orioles were disappointed that Darryl Hamilton asked for Brian McRae money, and Brady Anderson isn't thrilled about moving to left field ... The A's get clobbered by the labor agreement. Terry Steinbach is likely gone as a free agent (home to Minnesota, in all probability), Mike Bordick is a free agent and Billy Taylor gets the service time to be eligible for arbitration ... The Rangers told Kevin Elster to take his two-year, $2.5 million-a-year demands and hit the market. They'll use Benji Gil ... There are six more Cuban defectors to be signed this winter, even as the Castro government is trying to crack down. Cuba's best shortstop, German Mesa, was one of three stars banned for life from playing - even in Cuba - for suspicion of defecting. He is being made an example to others thinking about the millions that Livan Hernandez, Rey Ordonez, Ariel Prieto et al are making. Within two weeks, three players will have their Dominican Republic residency and be eligible to sign: 27-year-old national team No. 1 starter Rolando Arrojo, 6-4, 25-year-old lefthanded-hitting first baseman Roberto Colina and second baseman Jesus Arretter. Three members of the talented junior team can be signed by the first of the year ... Hundreds if not thousands of parishioners and ballplayers around Fall River send their prayers for a recovery to the legendary Rev. Paul McCarrick, who has run wooden-bat baseball leagues (producing players such as Rose and major league infielder Rod Correia) and basketball leagues. Messages can be sent to the Catholic Memorial Home, 2446 Highland Ave., Fall River, 02720 ... Many teams fear the specter of the two expansion franchises in 1998. The Indians are convinced that Kenny Lofton can get $10 million a year from Arizona when he becomes a free agent at the end of next season, and Tampa Bay gave high school pitcher Matt White $10.2 million in the same week that the greatest high school phenom of the past decade, Brien Taylor, was outrighted to the minors, waived through every team in baseball. The other can't-miss high school pitcher of the last decade? Todd Van Poppel, waived to his third team in two months ... The Tigers are trying to sign OF Luis Gonzalez, Tony Fernandez has an offer from Baltimore, and while the Rangers badly want to re-sign Mike Stanton, he wants to go to the Yankees ... One of the costs of the Cardinals' run back to respectability: Ticket prices are being raised 14.9 percent ... The Dodgers' signing of Todd Zeile wasn't announced because they want to wait until after the Dec. 7 arbitration date so they might not have to surrender a draft pick. Zeile is not a long-term solution, as slugging phenom Paul Konerko is playing very well in Arizona after being converted from first base ... Two intriguing players available in the Rule V minor league draft a week from tomorrow: Twins OF Keith LeGree, the University of Cincinnati's point guard last season, and Mets LHP Chris Roberts, a onetime No. 1 pick out of Florida State who underwent shoulder surgery but has come back and threw a no-hitter in Venezuela ... Tellum is telling the Orioles that if they don't get a long-term Mike Mussina contract done by the end of spring training, ``We will go out and see what we can get in the market. That will be it.'' Mussina, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux and Randy Johnson are all free agents after '97, all with visions of Jerry Colangelo in their dreams ... One of the best aspects of the labor agreement is that after the first of January, coaches get nearly $150,000 apiece in back licensing money. Hey, every year they've paid taxes on this money that was set aside for the guild's war chest ... Two years ago, Bob Hamelin was the American League Rookie of the Year, hitting .282 with 24 homers. The Royals are trying to sell him to Japan ... Look for the first bidding war between the Red Sox and Revolution to come in 2014, for Mac Andrews. It's in the genes. NUMBER CRUNCHING LOOKING BACK AT 1996 ... - A few goodies from the 1997 Stats Inc. ``Major League Handbook'' and ``Player Profile Book'':- The Red Sox' ERA in 1996 was 4.57 with Bill Haselman catching, 5.37 with Mike Stanley catching. - When opponents put the first pitch in play against Boston pitching, they batted .375 - .028 points above the league average. Roger Clemens? .402. Tom Gordon? .440, .701 slugging. Most pitching coaches will tell you that stems from a lack of preparation on who is a first-pitch swinger and who isn't. - The average AL ground-ball/fly-ball ratio was 1.22-1, but the Red Sox had the second-best in the league, 1.41-1, trailing only the Indians, 1.42-1. Roger Clemens (1.68-1), Aaron Sele (1.57-1), Tom Gordon (1.52-1), Jeff Suppan (1.35-1), Heathcliff Slocumb (1.70-1) and Kerry Lacy (2.57-1) had very strong ratios, which is very important in Fenway (if the infielders make the plays). Tim Wakefield (0.96-1) is Boston's fly-ball pitcher. Of course, when your infielders lead the majors in fielding errors and have the worst ground-ball double play percentage, ground-ball pitchers aren't rewarded. - The Red Sox were the least-successful AL team in hit-and-runs (32 percent), were second to last in attempted sacrifice bunts, and the managerial tendency breakdown in the ``Major League Handbook'' shows that they led the league in slow hooks, 120-pitch starts, 140-pitch starts (7, equal to the other 13 teams combined) and relief appearances. - To whoever gets Clemens and wants to keep his career going strong: please note that last year, between pitches 76-105, opponents batted .171; after 106 pitches, .270. Get someone up, hold the lead and get him to Cooperstown. ... AND AHEAD TO 1997 - One of the most enjoyable aspects of the ``Major League Handbook'' is Bill James' projections, which are consistently and remarkably accurate. Here are his for 1997:RED SOX HITTERS Avg. HR RBI Darren Bragg .257 10 51 Jose Canseco .269 29 90 Wil Cordero .299 10 54 Jeff Frye .276 3 43 Nomar Garciaparra .282 19 74 Bill Haselman .268 9 35 Reggie Jefferson .304 14 55 Jose Malave .263 10 33 Walt McKeel .300 14 71 Tim Naehring .280 12 61 Troy O'Leary .288 13 70 Rudy Pemberton .316 19 82 Arquimedez Pozo .286 7 34 Mike Stanley .262 19 69 Jesus Tavarez .258 1 14 John Valentin .288 19 80 Mo Vaughn .286 37 121 RED SOX PITCHERS W-L ERA Roger Clemens 15-10 3.83 Tom Gordon 14-11 4.40 Aaron Sele 12-9 4.32 Tim Wakefield 13-12 4.71 Heathcliff Slocumb 30 svs. 3.00 MAJOR LEAGUE LEADERS Batting - AL: Frank Thomas .325, Edgar Martinez .320, Alex Rodriguez .318. - NL: Tony Gwynn .336, Mike Piazza .323, Vladimir Guerrero .320. Home runs - AL: Albert Belle 47, Junior Griffey 42, Thomas 41. - NL: Ryan Klesko 35, Barry Bonds 35, Piazza 34. Wins - AL: Randy Johnson 17, Jeff Fassero 16, Alex Fernandez 16, David Cone 16. - NL: Greg Maddux 22, John Smoltz 18, Tom Glavine 15, Ismael Valdes 15, Kevin Brown 15. ERA - AL: Randy Johnson 3.03, Kevin Appier 3.08, Jeff Fassero 3.24. - NL: Greg Maddux 1.90, John Smoltz 2.86, Pedro Martinez 3.07, Kevin Brown 3.07. This story ran on page c10 of the Boston Globe on 12/01/96.